NGX Daily Market Summary & Insights — Thursday, September 25, 2025

Market Overview

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) rose 0.31% today to close at 140,716.10, maintaining a positive trajectory with robust Year-To-Date (YTD) returns of 36.81%. Trading activity was energetic: daily volume expanded to 421.51M shares (up 10.52% from the prior day), and turnover rose to ₦16.85B (a 10.89% increase). Market breadth was healthy at 1.61x, with 37 advancers significantly outpacing 23 decliners. Retail/Institutional flows reveal that institutional players were notably dominant, accounting for over 83% of volume and 92% of trade value. Meanwhile, the Naira strengthened 0.37% to settle at 1,488/USD.

Key Breadth & Trend Insights

• Advancers vs. Decliners: The market’s risk-on sentiment persists: 37 stocks advanced, while only 23 declined.
• Broad Participation: Volumes rose in 73 stocks, exceeding the 64 that experienced declines—an encouraging sign of widespread momentum beyond index heavyweights.
• Trend Continuation: ASI’s close above 140k and uptick in volume/turnover signal continuation of Q3 bullish sentiment.

Top Gainers & Losers

Deep Dives: Technical, Volume & Thematic Highlights

• Turnover Up, Volume Up: The uptick in both value and traded volume—supported by 421.51M shares—suggests renewed institutional appetite. Historically, this often forecasts sustained price stability or appreciation, especially as the breadth ratio holds above 1.5x.
• Momentum Focus:
  • Bullish Momentum: OANDO and MCNICHOLS both closed above their 15-day moving averages, signaling likely buy-side continuation. MECURE remains notably strong with a high YTD return and robust RSI (currently 61.7).
  • Bearish Momentum: TIP and SOVRENINS both crossed below their 15DMA today—these breakdowns, in contrast with ongoing ASI uptrend, warrant caution for momentum traders.
• Unusual Volume Alerts:
  • CONHALLPLC (Consolidated Hallmark Insurance) saw an astronomical 2,050% volume spike—unparalleled liquidity burst, likely driven by block trades or regulatory-driven accumulation. Yet, the stock remains a YTD underperformer (0.26% YTD), suggesting possible rotation or pre-corporate action activity.
  • MTNN also posted massive volume expansion (494% over average), but price was steady. This may point to institutional redistribution rather than a clear directional bet.
  • ETERNA PLC: Volume up 238%, price down -10%. Full-scale exit or forced selling pattern.
• YTD Leaders Are Today’s Momentum Stories:
  
  • MECURE: Up 103% YTD and 20.8% in the last 5 days, with a strong positive MACD and RSI at 61.7. Momentum remains intact, but RSI approaching overbought — watch for profit-taking soon.
  • CHELLARAMS: Up 339% YTD. While not a volume leader today, this name remains a clear "momentum stock” but RSI is now in the upper range (>68).
  • OANDO: Negative YTD (-25.5%) but positive today — possible reversal in play, reinforced by bullish MACD crossover and 15DMA breakout.
  • CAVERTON: On YTD losers and today's loser list — persistent negative beta pressure.
• Retail vs Institutional Trading Patterns:
  • Institutional dominance: Dominated volume (83%+) and value (92%+). Large blocks in MTNN, UBA, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP point to portfolio rebalancing or pre-quarter-end window dressing.
  • Retail Activity: Concentrated in UBA, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, and GTCO. However, retail’s volume share remains small—typical for mature bull legs.
  • Overlap with Unusual Volume: MTNN was extremely active in both retail and institutional trades, yet with nearly unchanged price — equilibrium established, watch for breakouts.

Contrarian Signals

• OANDO (OANDO): Reversal play. Despite bearish YTD (-25.5%), today it posted a strong +9.5% move, RSI climbed (now 46.7), bullish MACD crossover, and price cleared 15DMA — potential short squeeze or sentiment shift.
• TIP: Remains up on YTD (+2.2%) and 5D basis, but today’s close below 15DMA and negative MACD signal a near-term reversal risk.
• CHAMS: RSI sitting mid-range (52.5) with a bullish day, but not on volume leader board — momentum traders may want to see confirmation.
• CAVERTON: Appears on both YTD and daily loser tables; possible candidate for "falling knife” but RSI not deeply oversold (<51). Avoid contrarian long until capitulation or <30 RSI.
• MCNICHOLS: Bullish move (+9.3%) with positive MACD, but low beta and thin EPS. Volume confirmation is present.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Picks

Defensive income seekers should focus on high-yield, low-beta names like AFRIPRUD and MANSARD—especially when market volatility rises.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional investors dominated trading with 20.2% of trade value share, supported by bullish PE expansion and RSI above 51 — strong "smart money” inflows.
• MTNN: Massive block trades, stable price—possible fund manager rebalancing.
• CONHALLPLC: Unprecedented volume; suggests underlying accumulation by larger hands, yet price languishing. If news breaks, expect outsized movement.

Dividend Yield in Momentum Names

• MBENEFIT: Present in bullish momentum, offers 3.28% yield but has a beta of 1.27—risk-tolerant income accounts might find this attractive, but volatility may spike.
• MANSARD: Featured in bearish momentum yet shows high yield (4.59%) and low beta. Contrarian yield chase possible if technical bottom forms soon.

Actionable Suggestions & Outlook

• MECURE and MCNICHOLS could see continued momentum but watch for RSI creep towards overbought zone.
• Avoid fresh longs in ETERNA and CAVERTON; both show technical and volume-based distribution.
• OANDO offers a potentially attractive mean-reversion trade, given today’s momentum reversal and bullish technical cross.
• Dividend hunters can start nibbling on MANSARD and AFRIPRUD if market volatility picks up.
• For risk-off investors, avoid stocks with persistent negative YTD and technical red flags, even if dividend yields look tempting (e.g., SOVRENINS).
• MTNN’s high volume with stagnant price—wait for direction confirmation before acting. Watch for news or regulatory events.

Market Activity: Retail vs Institutional Flows & Patterns

• Institutional investors: Drove over 83% of daily volume and 92% of value. ZENITHBANK, UBA, MTNN, and ACCESSCORP dominated block trading—implies strong conviction in core banking/telecom holdings.
• Retail investors: Most active in the same banking names, but their impact was limited (16.9% of volume). Retail-driven surges often precede volatility, so monitor if retail/volume spikes persist with no price breakout.
• Patterns:
  • Overlap: MTNN, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP appeared on both institutional and retail most traded lists—these are "decision points” for short-term swing trades or investors seeking liquidity.
  • Value-weighted institutional clusters: High institutional value in ZENITHBANK and MTNN lines up with low volatility in price, indicating accumulation, not speculative churn.
• Trading Tip: When block volumes coincide with stable prices, as in MTNN and ZENITHBANK today, breakout volatility often follows within a few sessions—be prepared.

15/50 Day Moving Avg Crossovers: Trend Snapshots

Hidden Insights

• Attention to Mean Reversion: OANDO’s reversal can spark further short covering, especially if retail flows sustain tomorrow.
• Institutional Clustering in MTNN is not accompanied by price volatility—watch for imminent news or cross-sector ETF rebalancing.
• Momentum-Volume Disconnects: Some gainers (MCNICHOLS, CHAMS) had technical breakouts without matching volume surges, a sign that institutional momentum may not yet be convinced; micro-cap caution is advised.
• Defensive Rotation: Dividend, low-beta portfolios (AFRIPRUD, MANSARD) remain attractive if market breadth narrows.